MLB Playoffs Game 1 Betting Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
It’s Game 1 of the best-of-three series in the National League Wildcard. The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the road at the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Diamondbacks finished second in the National League West with an 84-78 record. They finished as the third National League Wildcard team. Arizona went 41-40 when playing on the road this season.
For Milwaukee, they ran away with the National League Central. They beat the Cubs by nine games and won 49 out of 81 games at home. Milwaukee finished the season with 92 wins in the regular season. The Milwaukee Brewers are -185 in this game; the run line shows the Brewers at 1.5 (-120).
Arizona Sending Rookie to the Mound
Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks. This gives Zac Gallen a chance to go on full rest on Wednesday and will allow Merrill Kelly to go on Thursday. If Gallen started in this game, he would be on short rest, as the Diamondbacks needed wins down the stretch of the season.
Pfaadt is 3-9 this season, with a 5.72 earned run average. The 24-year-old right-hander made 18 starts during the regular season, finishing with 94 strikeouts in 96 innings. Over his last five starts, he allowed 12 earned runs over 25 innings.
The Arizona Diamondbacks had quite an up-and-down season, which saw them off to a hot start before cooling down. The Diamondbacks finished the season 14th in Major League Baseball in runs scored with 746. The team average for Arizona was correct at .250.
Corbin Carroll put together a solid rookie season at .285. Carroll was joined by teammate Christian Walker, who finished with 33 home runs and 103 runs drove in.
The Diamondbacks have not been to the postseason since 20017. There, they beat the Rockies 1-0 in a wildcard game but then got swept by the Dodgers in three games.
Brewers Ready to Prove Regular Season Not a Fluke
The Milwaukee Brewers, to no fault of their own, have been doubted all season long, mostly due to their division. The Brewers are known to have dominated a bad division. Regardless, they have 92 wins and are ready to compete in the postseason. The Brewers did not make the postseason in 2022 but went to the divisional series in 2021 and lost three out of four to the Atlanta Braves.
The Brewers won four out of their final five games this season. In those four wins, the Brewers’ pitching allowed just five total runs. That was a theme much of the season, as they finished with the best earned run average in baseball, at 3.71.
On the offensive side, Milwaukee saw William Contreras put forth a good season, with a .291 average. Willy Adames led the team with 24 home runs and 80 batted in.
The Brewers will send Corbin Burnes to the mound. Burnes is the Brewers’ ace and was used sparingly down the stretch to prepare for this start. He finished the season with 200 strikeouts.
The 28-year-old from Bakersfield, California, went 10-8 and had a 3.39 earned run average. Burnes made 32 starts for the Brewers, including two against the Diamondbacks. In 13 innings, he allowed seven innings.
Brewers Win Game One
Throw out the records. Throw out the head-to-head. Throw all that out. Postseason baseball is a different animal.
The Diamondbacks are young and unproven, and Pfaadt may be too young to care about the environment, but ultimately, we are taking the home team. Burnes will shove in this game and get the Brewers off to a good start. This will put Gallen in a must-win game tomorrow.
Bet the Milwaukee Brewers run line at -1.5 (-120) over Arizona.
