Coming off a Game 3 win, Miami looks to even the series against Los Angeles on Tuesday at 9 PM, in the fourth game of the NBA Finals.
LA is favored by 7.5 points, despite their 115-104 loss Sunday night. Los Angeles’ consistent play this postseason has garnered respect from oddsmakers.
The story of game 3 was a dominant triple-double performance from the Heat’s Jimmy Butler, who finished with 40 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds.
The shorthanded Heat will need a similarly herculean effort from their star if they want to even the series. That’s especially true if starters Goran Dragic (foot),and Bam Adebayo (neck) are forced to miss their third straight game.
Bouncing Back
Sunday’s defeat was just the fourth loss the Lakers have had this postseason. In their previous three games coming off a loss, they are 3-0, and 2-0-1 ATS.
Favoring a Los Angeles cover, is the continued presence of stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The talented duo combined for an uncharacteristic 13 turnovers in Game 3, and will look to protect the basketball and get to the hoop in this one.
Davis’ production in particular dipped after a scorching start to the Finals. Going into Game 3 averaging 33.0 PPG, Davis finished with just 15 on 6-9 shooting on Sunday. Getting AD back on track will be key for the Lakers.
The absence of Adebayo leaves Miami with a defensive mismatch down low, which Davis exploited in Los Angeles’ wins. The team should be finding ways to get his big body in the paint and let him use his size to his advantage.
Can Miami Offense Heat Up?
Two of Miami’s top perimeter threats, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro, have been ice-cold from three-point land to start this Finals series. Robinson (25%) and Herro (27%) haven’t found the range that was pivotal in advancing past Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Robinson and Herro were shooting above 40% from deep prior to this series, and a return to form would definitely help Miami get through the loss of Adebayo and Dragic.
The Lakers allow their opponents to shoot a middling 36% from deep in the bubble, but have the rangy three-and-d wings to continue stifling Heat shooters.
Props to Consider
Keep your eye on a few player props: including James’ over in assists and rebounds. James is currently averaging nine assists and 10.5 rebounds per game this postseason, and it’s about time for his Finals experience to shine through as he takes over an important Game 4.
You can find James’ over 9.5 assists at +108 and over 9.5 rebounds at -125, both of which feel likely on Tuesday. There shouldn’t need to be much convincing necessary when it comes to the former MVP’s capabilities in the playoffs.
There is also a rise to the mean coming for Miami’s Robinson from three-point range. His over on 3-pointers made is currently at 2.5 (-130).
It’s looking like Adebayo won’t be playing in Game 4. The All Star point-forward’s impact on the Heat cannot be undersold, and his absence makes the game choice an easy one.
The pick: Lakers -7.5
