The New England Patriots will visit the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium this Sunday, October 4, 2026. The game is set to start at 1:00 PM and will be broadcast on CBS. The weather forecast calls for cool temperatures with a light breeze, and skies will be overcast. The consensus odds have the Bills as the favorites with a moneyline of -320, while the Patriots sit at +258. The spread favors the Bills by 6.5 points, and the total is set at 48.5.
Buffalo comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 record, including 2-0 at home. The Patriots, meanwhile, are 1-2 this season, struggling on the road with a 0-2 record. Early betting angles suggest that New England’s road woes may continue, with the Bills’ strong home performance. The total set at 48.5 points invites consideration of both teams’ offensive and defensive capabilities.
New England Patriots: Season Snapshot
Drake Maye is set to lead the Patriots’ offense as the starting quarterback. He has been solid with a projection of 237.1 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns for this game. His key targets will be Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins, who are expected to contribute with around 51.2 and 40.6 receiving yards, respectively. Hunter Henry will also be a vital part of the passing game, with a projection of 38.7 receiving yards.
The Patriots aim to establish a balanced attack with TreVeyon Henderson leading the ground game. He is projected to rush for 51.2 yards and score 0.4 touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson will also see significant action, with projections of 44.7 rushing yards and 2.6 receptions. The offensive line, however, will need to step up, as injuries have affected their depth.
Defensively, the Patriots rely on strong performances from Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzalez in the secondary. The team ranks 5th in opponent offensive yards allowed, showcasing a solid defensive effort. Linebacker Dre’Mont Jones is listed as questionable, which could impact their pass rush. The Patriots’ defense will look to improve on their takeaway count, currently ranked 6th in the league.
Buffalo Bills: Season Snapshot
The Buffalo Bills have a strong offensive unit led by quarterback Josh Allen. Allen has been impressive this season, with 786 passing yards and five touchdowns in three games. The team relies heavily on him to drive their high-powered offense, which ranks first in scoring with an average of 33.7 points per game.
Running back James Cook III is another key player for the Bills. He has accumulated 346 rushing yards and two touchdowns over three games. Cook’s presence ensures a balanced attack, making it difficult for opponents to focus solely on the passing game.
On defense, the Bills have struggled a bit, allowing an average of 26 points per game. However, they have been effective in creating pressure, with nine sacks so far. Players like C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Cole Bishop have made significant contributions, helping the team maintain a solid 3-0 record.
Betting Prediction
The Bills have the top-ranked offense this season, averaging 33.7 points per game. Their ability to gain yards, both through the air and on the ground, is among the best in the league. The Patriots’ defense is strong, ranking fourth in opponent points allowed per game. However, they may find it tough to limit the Bills’ high-powered offense.
The Patriots’ offense ranks low, averaging only 12 points per game. This could make it difficult for them to keep up with the Bills’ scoring. The Bills’ defense, while not as highly ranked as their offense, still holds an advantage over the Patriots’ struggling offense.
Given the Bills’ offensive strength and the Patriots’ offensive struggles, the Bills covering the spread seems likely. The Bills have shown they can score in bunches, while the Patriots may struggle to keep pace.
- Pick: Bills -6.5 (-116)
