The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers play the finale of a three-game series on Sunday night. The teams have split the first two games. The Dodgers won Saturday 2-1 behind a strong pitching performance from Tony Gonsolin. Gonsolin went five innings, allowing only two hits and one run. Justin Turner’s two-run homer in the third inning ended up being the decisive blow. California native Aaron Judge went deep for the Yankees in the loss.
The Yankees will send Domingo German (16-3, 4.15 ERA) to the mound against Clayton Kershaw (13-2, 2.71 ERA) in the finale. Kershaw is enjoying another great year after many thought that he was entering a regression. Most impressively, Kershaw has gone at least six innings in all of his starts this year. German is second in the major leagues in winning percentage, with the only pitcher ahead of him being Kershaw.
The Dodgers are the favorite at -175, and the over/under is 9.
Yankees Homering Way To Playoffs
The Yankees have hit 258 home runs this year, including six in the first two games of the series. The 258 homers are second in all of baseball. The Yankees enter with a record of 84-47 and are 35-27 on the road. New York is hoping to get back on track after losing five of its last seven games.
German was roughed up by Oakland in his last start. He gave up six runs (five earned) over 5 1/3 innings while allowing eight hits. The loss ended a streak of seven straight wins for German. Since the All-Star break, the right-hander is 6-1 over eight starts with a WHIP of 1.21 and an ERA of 4.96. He has never faced LA.
New York hitters have struggled against Kershaw. In 125 plate appearances, they have a combined OPS of .541 and 0 home runs. DJ LeMahieu has the best career numbers, going 17 for 61 with five doubles. Since the break, Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman have been the Yankees’ best hitters, both having an OPS of 1.114.
The Yankees have Dellin Betances, David Hale, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Edwin Encarnacion on the IL.
Dodgers Cruising To NL’s Best Record
The Dodgers have a record of 86-45 and are a remarkable 51-17 at home. This is easily the best record in the National League. LA has won four of its last five games.
Kershaw will be pitching his first game since becoming the Dodgers’ all-time leader in wins, passing Sandy Koufax. In seven starts since the All-Star break, Kershaw has a WHIP of 0.95 and is 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA. Kershaw has faced the Yankees three times with no-decisions and an ERA of 0.90. The key for the former Cy Young Award winner will be keeping the Yankees in the ballpark.
Dodgers hitters have never faced German. Against right-handed pitching on the year, they have a team OPS of .835, 60 points higher than against lefties. Since the break, rookie Will Smith has been a monster. He has an OPS of 1.207, and is 22 for 69, with nine of those hits being homers. For good measure, he has thrown in seven doubles.
LA has Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, and Alex Verdugo on the IL, Russell Martin is on bereavement, and Julio Urias is suspended.
The Pick
It is very rare to be able to get the Yankees at +160. I have a feeling this line will move to -155 for the Dodgers before the day is over because people will be tempted to take the Yankees with the big-number return. Kershaw has been the much better pitcher of the two, and the Dodgers are almost unstoppable at home. I am on the Dodgers, but I say be patient and let the number come down to -160/155 before you play.
