NFC Championship Game: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview
In a loaded NFC, it’s the top two seeds that have made it to the NFC Championship Game, as the San Francisco 49ers will play host to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. At home, the 49ers are favored by 7.5 points, with an over/under of 45 points.
Some folks may have started to doubt San Francisco late in the year. But the 49ers beat the Seahawks in Week 17 to secure the top seed in the NFC.
More importantly, they were at the top of their game last week, taking care of business against the Vikings. The 27-10 scoreline doesn’t quite do justice to how much San Francisco dominated the game.
As for the Packers, they also enjoyed a bye for the first week of the playoffs and came out firing on all cylinders last week. However, a 21-3 halftime lead over the Seahawks slowly dissipated during the second half.
In the end, the Packers did enough to hold on to a 28-23 win and reach the NFC Championship Game for the third time in the last six seasons.
Mr. Jones and Me
Even with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, running back Aaron Jones might be Green Bay’s most important player against the 49ers. Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards during the regular season and has been a catalyst for the Packers this year.
But when he can’t get going, the entire Green Bay offense tends to struggle. Despite his two touchdowns last week, Jones averaged just three yards per carry against Seattle, which is why the Packers stalled in the second half and allowed the Seahawks back in the game.
The challenge will be even greater for Jones this week. San Francisco’s defense completely shut down one of the most potent rushing attacks in the NFL last week, as it limited Dalvin Cook to just 18 yards on nine carries.
If the 49ers can do the same to Jones, it’ll allow the San Francisco pass rush to put consistent pressure on Rodgers and keep the Green Bay offense out of rhythm.
A Little Help From My Friends
Likewise, success for the San Francisco offense begins with the running game. The 49ers have had three capable running backs all season, and opposing teams never know what San Francisco will throw at them.
Tevin Coleman was a ghost in December but came out of nowhere for 105 yards and two touchdowns last week. Of course, this week, it could just as easily be Raheem Mostert or Matt Breida taking the lead.
Regardless of who it is, the 49ers are usually able to do the heavy lifting with their running game, making things easy for Jimmy Garoppolo. To their credit, the Packers have a vicious pass rush behind Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, who both had two sacks last week.
But if the Green Bay defense can’t stop the run and force Garoppolo to beat them, that pass rush can be neutralized by San Francisco’s strong offensive line and running game.
Trench Warfare
There’s every chance that the 49ers will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. San Francisco is capable of stopping the run defensively and establishing its own ground game on offense. If it can do that, it could be a long day for the Packers.
The 49ers may not win 37-8 like they did when Green Bay visited Levi’s Stadium earlier this season but bet on the 49ers to still cover the 7.5-point spread.
