Following a Game 1 victory for the Dallas Stars, the Tampa Bay Lightning evened things up with a win in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final. On Wednesday night, the two finalists will face off once again with Edmonton, with a chance to take the series lead.
Here is a preview for Game 3 between the Lightning and Stars. Coming off of an important win, the Lightning are once again favored to win at -170.
Series Recap
Game 1 was dominated by the underdog, as a big second period helped the Stars to a 4-1 win and a quick series lead. Defenseman Jamie Oleksiak and left-wing Joel Kiviranta each scored in the middle frame, book-ended by an opening score from defenseman Joel Hanley and an empty-netter from center Jason Dickinson.
The big standout for Dallas was the goaltender Anton Khudobin, who made 35 saves, including 22 in the third period. Left-wing Yanni Gourde scored the lone goal for the Lightning.
On Monday, a huge first period was enough for the Bolts to get back in the series, winning Game 2 by a score of 3-2. A slumping power play found some life for Tampa Bay, as center Brayden Point and left-wing Ondrej Palat each scored on the man-advantage. The Lightning would make it a three-goal game when defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk scored less than a minute after Palat.
Dallas made it a game though, out-shooting Tampa for the last two periods of the game and getting a couple of goals from centers Joe Pavelski and Mattias Janmark, but ultimately the Lightning staved off their comeback and held on for the win.
Keys to Victory
Tampa Bay will win if they continue to emphasize defense. While the Stars are the team with a greater reputation for defensive prowess, the Lightning can captaincy hold their own when the puck isn’t on their sticks. They were seventh in the NHL in goal allowed per game during the regular season, and actually allowed fewer shots and had a better penalty kill percentage than Dallas.
We saw their ability to lock down opponents if need be, allowing a desperate Stars team just five shots on goal in the third period of Game 2, including two shots in the final 14:33. Everyone will focus on the scoring ability of the Lightning, but their hopes of winning this series will hinge on their two-way play.
Dallas will win if they show more discipline. One of the keys for the Stars was not to give the Lightning so many chances with the extra attacker, even if the power play had been struggling. But Tampa buried two of their four power-play attempts, both of which were crucial in their one-goal victory.
This continues a trend for Dallas, as now they have been short-handed 79 times in their 20 postseason games. In comparison, Tampa Bay has only been short-handed 63 times in 18 games. The Stars still have a good penalty kill and will always attack each game with a tough, physical style. But the more they can keep the game at even strength, the better off they’ll be.
Betting Pick
One wild card for the game will be the availability of Lightning center Steven Stamkos. The talented goal-scorer has missed the whole postseason for the Bolts but could return for Game 3, so check his status before locking in any bets.
All that being said, I like the Stars in an upset. Staying out of the box will be vital, but Dallas has generated more high-danger chances during five-on-five play and has the type of defense that can keep them in any game. With good value on a team that has outscored their opponent 6-4 in the first two games of the series, I’m picking the Stars to reclaim the series lead.
Pick: Stars +145
