Corey Perry’s goal in double-overtime was the one thing that stood in the way of the Tampa Bay Lightning hoisting the Stanley Cup. Instead, the series moves to a Game 6, where the Dallas Stars will try again to stay alive and force a Game 7 against the Lightning.
Here is a preview for Monday night’s matchup between the Lightning and Stars. Tampa Bay is favored in the contest, listed at -170.
Series Recap
In the opening game of this series, the Stars used their toughness and physicality to overwhelm the Lightning, winning 4-1 and taking an early lead in the series. They also won due to a stellar performance from Anton Khudobin, who made 35 saves, including 22 in the third period alone.
After being shut out on the power play all three times in Game 1, Tampa Bay found their teeth again with the extra attacker in Game 2.
Center Brayden Point and left-wing Ondrej Palat each scored first-period power-play goals as the Bolts evened up the series with a 3-2 win. Dallas nearly overcame a three-goal deficit but fell short after mustering just two shots in the final 10 minutes of regulation.
Game 3 was Tampa Bay at their best. With the return of center Steven Stamkos, who scored in his brief return to action, the Bolts cruised to a 5-2 win to take the lead in the series.
Seemingly all of their key players scored, including right-wing Nikita Kucherov and defenseman Victor Hedman, as well as Point and Palat once again. The Lightning victory was highlighted by a dominant three-goal second period in which they out-shot Dallas 21-4.
Perhaps the closest game so far was Game 4. Point and Dallas center Joe Pavelski each netted a pair of goals as the two teams were tied at four heading into OT. But a costly penalty from captain Jamie Benn put Tampa on the power play, where d-man Kevin Shattenkirk made them pay and put the Lightning one win away from the Cup. Tampa Bay continued their power-play success once again, this time going a remarkable 3-for-4.
Then in Game 5, it was Perry who scored the game’s first goal and the final goal, as the Stars won 3-2 in double OT to stave off elimination. Dallas stayed out of the penalty box, giving the Lightning just one power-play attempt for the entire game. Palat and Pavelski were additional goal-scorers in the contest as each of them continued their impressive series’, while defenseman Mikhail Sergachev scored his first goal of the Cup.
Keys to Victory
Tampa Bay will win if they get more high-danger scoring chances. In the two games the Lightning dropped this series, they out-shot and out-attempted their opponents. But the quality of those attempts lacked at least a little bit. In Game 5, Tampa Bay had 87 attempts and managed 11 high-danger scoring chances.
Compare that to Dallas now, who had just 63 attempts for the game but 18 high-danger scoring chances. When the game is at even strength, the Lightning will look to continue to control possession and find a way to improve the quality of their shots.
Dallas will win if they stay out of the penalty box. This has been a key for the Stars all series and continues to ring true as they face elimination once again. In the games they won this series, they held the Bolts to 0-for-3 and 0-for-1 on the penalty kill.
But in their losses, Tampa Bay went 2-for-4, 1-for-4, and 3-for-4 with the extra man. One of the downfalls of Dallas’s physical play style is a penchant for penalties, so having one penalty in nearly five periods of Game 5 was ideal. The Stars will need to try to keep this game at even strength as much as they can.
Betting Pick
With a championship on the line, every little moment will matter, so whoever makes the fewer amount of mistakes will be in a better position to win. Based on what we’ve seen thus far in the series, that favors the Lightning.
However, I believe that Game 5 was a turning point for the Stars. Their discipline, shot selection, and shot prevention at even strength was impressive, and I am hoping for more of the same in Game 6.
Pick: Stars +145
