This week’s Thursday night NFL game features two teams that are moving in different directions, as the Miami Dolphins visit the Houston Texans. The Texans are listed as 7.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 44 points.
Less than a month ago, Houston was 0-3, needing overtime and the Colts to take a foolish risk to win their first game of the season. But the Texans have been rolling ever since. After last week’s 20-7 win over division rival Jacksonville, the Texans are now 4-3 on the season and in first place in the AFC South. Of course, with the Titans and Jaguars just a game behind, Houston can’t afford to let up, especially at home.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, got off to a 3-0 start, but it’s been all downhill since then. Miami has lost three of their last four games, with all three losses coming by 10 or more points. If not for a comeback win over the Bears a couple weeks ago, the Dolphins could have easily lost four in a row. Nevertheless, they are 4-3 on the season and just a game behind New England in the AFC East. However, they desperately need to get things turned around.
Damaged Fins
Among Miami’s biggest problems these days is their health. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is set to miss his third straight game, meaning it’ll be Brock Osweiler at the helm once again. Osweiler has actually fared well the past couple of weeks. However, the Dolphins are quite banged up at wide receiver with Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both ruled out for Thursday’s game with Danny Amendola listed as questionable.
If that weren’t bad enough, the Dolphins will be going up against a Houston defense that’s allowed 16 or fewer points in each of the last three weeks. During that span, the Texans have forced eight turnovers and accumulated eight sacks. The tandem of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney is becoming a force to be reckoned with and will surely cause problems for Osweiler and the Miami offense on Thursday.
It’s Miller Time
On the other side of the ball, running back Lamar Miller stole the show for the Texans last week. Against a stout Jacksonville defense, the former Dolphin ran for 100 yards to help take a lot of the pressure off Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson. While Watson has steadily improved over the course of the season, he’s taking a lot of hits because all the sacks Houston has allowed and all the running he’s done to keep the offense moving.
Needless to say, the Texans will try to lean on Miller this week against his former team. The Dolphins just so happened to give up 248 yards rushing and 7.1 yards per carry against the Lions last week. The Miami run defense is one of the worst in the NFL this season, so Miller is in a good position to steal the show on Thursday.
No Thrills Thursday
On a Sunday, 7.5 points would be a huge line for a road team to cover. However, Thursday night games are prone to being one-sided affairs. That’s been the case the last two weeks with the road team winning both games easily. Given the direction of these two teams, that trend should continue. Bet on the Texans -7.5 to win and cover against the Dolphins on Thursday.
