Sports Betting Picks

Week 6 Monday Night Football Betting Preview: 49ers vs Packers

Week 6 of the NFL season will conclude Monday night as the San Francisco 49ers visit the Green Bay Packers. At home, the Packers are listed as 9-point favorites with an over/under for the game set at 46 points.

Green Bay has been mired in inconsistency through the first five weeks of the season. They head into Monday’s game at 2-2-1 following a frustrating loss to the Lions last week that saw them trail 24-0 at halftime and placekicker Mason Crosby miss four field goals. The good news is that the rest of their division is in a similar boat, as the Bears lead the division at 3-2 while the 2-3 Lions are in last place.

The 49ers, meanwhile, could be staring down the barrel of another lost season. The injury to Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown them for a loop, to say the least. The 49ers have now lost three in a row, including a frustrating loss to the Cardinals last week in which they turned the ball over five times. At 1-4, things could get worse for San Francisco before they get better.

Sit or Quit

One of the leading storylines heading into Monday’s game is the status of San Francisco running back Matt Breida, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Breida is averaging 7.5 yards per carry on the season and is easily the most impactful player the 49ers have on the offensive side of the ball. HIs backup, Alfred Morris, is averaging less than four yards per carry, so there is an obvious drop off if Breida can’t play.

Without a productive running game, the 49ers figure to be in trouble, even against a Green Bay defense that isn’t particularly impressive. Backup quarterback C.J. Beathard.  has been serviceable at times in place of Garoppolo, but he’s still too turnover prone. The 49ers also have a profound lack of playmakers at the receiver position, as their top two receivers are a tight end and a fullback. If Breida doesn’t play, Beathard and the San Francisco offense could be in trouble.

Saving Private Aaron

Of course, the Green Bay offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. Aaron Rodgers is lacking his usual mobility due to his knee injury, which is a factor in him being sacked 16 times already this season. To his credit, he’s hung in there and doing the best he can. However, his receivers outside of Davante Adams have been a little spotty and the Packers don’t always commit to the running game to help keep pressure off Rodgers.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco defense is better than the numbers may indicate. They’ve given up a lot of points this season, but much of that is due to a lack of support from their offense. The 49ers have done a nice job of slowing down opposing running games and preventing big plays against them, so they should provide a viable challenge for Rodgers and the Packers.

A Little Much

This spread is way too much for the Packers to cover, even at home. To be fair, the 49ers are a liability because of their propensity for turning the ball over. But in five games, the Packers have only one win that was comfortable. Bet on the 49ers +9 to at least beat the spread on Monday night.

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