When it comes to betting systems, fading the public has got to be one of the most popular and regularly employed. The contrarian method of wagering against whatever side the public is taking, “fading the public” has long been a good idea. The rationale behind the wagering system is simple, too, making it all the more likable. The idea is this, the gambling public is too easily brainwashed by oddsmakers and the media coverage and, therefore, tends to be wrong more often than they are right.
The more the public likes one side of a contest, the better of an idea it is to bet against them and take the other side. This way, you are betting with smart money while fading the public. It’s simple logic and, time and again, it works.
Gamblers love this betting system because it’s logical. How could a sportsbook stay in business if the gambling public at large performed better than said sportsbook? Businesses don’t remain businesses by giving away all their money. They need more coming in than they do going out and I don’t know if you’ve been to Vegas lately but those buildings are only getting taller and brighter.
The sportsbooks and oddsmakers will always set the lines in an attempt to get equal public action on both sides. This way, they can take all the losses and still collect the juice off the winners. This keeps them ahead. However, when the gambling public hammer one side of the equation, it’s often the sportsbooks that come out way ahead.
Oddsmakers know what they’re doing after all and their manipulation of the gambling public is what makes fading the public so logical. If the house always wins, why not bet with the house?
Favorites and Overs
The best example explaining the fade is the knowledge that the gambling public overwhelmingly wagers on favorites and Overs. This trend has been alive and well for decades now. Most sports gamblers find sports gambling because of their love of sports first.
They have a home team and a passion for the sport they play. And what better way to make money than to use this well of knowledge by picking some winners. Sports gamblers are fans at heart, first and foremost. And what fan doesn’t like to bet on great teams, i.e. heavy favorites, that score a ton of points, i.e. the over?
It’s this knowledge that allows the oddsmakers and sportsbooks to exploit point spreads and totals bets a point here and a half point there. They know too well who and what the sports gamblers will play and set lines accordingly.
When a pick is especially popular in the public’s eye, the lines will move in order to bring in even more action and will offer even more value for those fading the public. After all, the house is trying to win, too, and they’re the ones making the rules. Why would you bet against them?
Run the Numbers
For further proof, just look to the National Football League. Professional football is the United States’ favorite sport to watch and gamble on. Baseball my be the National Pastime but the NFL is king. We looked at NFL games over the last 10 seasons and in the games where the gambling public was 75% on one side, they lost about 55% of the time. Obviously fading the public would have proved to be quite profitable.
Large underdogs were the best wagers of all over this time, winning games at a 55% clip when action was 75% one-sided on a favorite of at least +7 points.
Road teams who receive the majority of the public’s attention were another great fade opportunity. If you wagered against the road team which received 75% of the public’s action, you would have won over 56% of the time.
This betting system fits within every scenario you can think up and always will come out a few percentage points ahead of public opinion. The reason for this is simple, too.
The sportsbooks and oddsmakers are playing a long game while most sports gamblers are not. Those three to five percentage points here and there add up quickly when you are the one taking the action. The bigger the game the better, too, as some games will attract more attention than others. Which side do you want to be on then?
While no wagering trends or gambling systems last forever because the market simply adjusts itself over time. However, fading the public seems to be one that can stand the test of time. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers will always know where the public money is and sharp bettors will always be able to track it themselves as well.
Good gamblers know that in order to be successful they must find wagers with value as well as the winners. Picking winners is great and all but you want it to pay off in the end. The smart money knows that sometimes you have to go against conventional wisdom to find that value. Fading the public is the best way to do just that.